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The Innovation

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match The Innovation's content profile, based on 13 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Characterizing Preschool Children's Multi-Matrix Air Pollutant Exposures Across Home and Early Childhood Education Settings: A Paired Silicone Wristband Study Protocol

Mutic, A. D.; McCauley, L.; Andrew, A.; Fitzpatrick, A.

2026-08-31 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361470 medRxiv
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Background: Children spend more than 90% of their time indoors, and early childhood education settings (ECEs) are an understudied, high-occupant-density indoor microenvironment where exposure to volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, and other toxicants has been documented. Limited knowledge exists on ECE-specific exposures affecting young children and how they compare to exposures in the home. Methods: This prospective, repeated-measures pilot study targeted enrollment of 44 preschool-aged children and 8 ECE staff across two geographically and sociodemographically distinct ECEs in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia. Paired silicone wristbands, one home-designated and one ECE-designated, were exchanged between settings across three consecutive days and nights beginning at enrollment to characterize microenvironment-specific exposure. A single spot urine sample was also collected from each child. Continuous indoor air quality monitoring was conducted in two classrooms per site. Caregivers and ECE staff completed structured questionnaires assessing home and ECE environmental characteristics, child respiratory risk, and protocol feasibility and acceptability. Feasibility was evaluated using eight pre-specified indicators spanning recruitment and enrollment, wristband wear duration and loss by microenvironment, urine sample collection completeness, and survey completion by instrument and respondent group. Conclusion: This pilot will establish feasibility and acceptability parameters for a paired, multi-matrix silicone wristband protocol across home and ECE microenvironments. Findings will inform the design, sample size, and power calculations for a subsequent study testing indoor air interventions and pediatric respiratory outcomes in ECEs. Feasibility outcomes are reported in a companion manuscript.

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BRIX1 Promotes Hepatocellular Carcinoma Progression via the MAPK/ERK Pathway and Serves as a Prognostic Biomarker

Pan, X.; Wang, x.; Zhou, Y.

2026-08-31 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.08.26.747409 medRxiv
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Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is particularly aggressive and difficult to treat. Due to the lack of early clinical diagnosis and the unsatisfactory clinical treatment effect, it is particularly important to identify novel markers that can predict tumor behavior in HCC. biogenesis of ribosomes BRX1 (BRIX1) is abundant in various tissues of the human body. However, the regulatory mechanisms and its role in various tissues are not fully understood. Here, we analyzed the expression pattern of BRIX1 in HCC from public gene expression databases and tissue samples from clinical HCC. We confirmed that BRIX1 was upregulated in both HCC cell lines and HCC paraffin section samples. BRIX1 depletion significantly dicreased the capacity of cells to grow and migrate in vitro, and knockdown BRIX1 suppressed tumor growth in xenograft tumor model. Mechanistically, BRIX1 depletion suppressed the MAPK/ERK pathway, as reflected by reduced phosphorylated ERK (p-ERK) levels. In summary, we provide a rational clue for the further investigation of BRIX1 as an invaluable biological marker for diagnosing and predicting prognosis of patients with HCC.

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Warming, thermal variability, and the 96% decline in childhood respiratory-infection mortality in China: a national time-series analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and the C-LSAT high-resolution climate dataset

Li, D.; Miao, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Chen, H.; Wang, X.; Shen, C.

2026-09-02 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361879 medRxiv
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Background Childhood respiratory mortality in China has fallen by over 90% in three decades alongside sustained national warming, yet national long-run evidence on temperature and child respiratory mortality is lacking. Methods We linked Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 mortality estimates for China - lower respiratory infections (LRI), ages 0-19, and asthma, ages 0-24, 1990-2021 - with C-LSAT 0.5 deg gridded temperature data (1990-2019), aggregated nationally and to five climate zones. Four annual indicators (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered regressions of log mortality rates with Newey-West standard errors. A bootstrapped (500 resamples) quadratic model probed the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), with PM2.5-adjusted analyses and future-exposure, permutation, and detrended falsification tests. Results LRI deaths fell by 96.3% (330,194 in 1990 to 12,098 in 2021; 95% uncertainty interval 9,669-14,891) and asthma deaths by 94.9% (3,287 to 167), while mean temperature rose 0.364 deg C per decade and diurnal temperature range narrowed 0.092 deg C per decade. Baseline coefficients were large (mean temperature -1.696, SE 0.174; diurnal temperature range +2.408, SE 0.336; seasonal amplitude -0.162, SE 0.082; interannual variability +2.924, SE 1.514, per 1 deg C in log rate), but the future-exposure test failed and detrending nullified every coefficient: the associations are trend-level, and short-cycle causal effects are not identifiable. Nor was the national MMT identifiable - observed temperature support spans only 6.66-8.13 deg C, and the nominal turning point of 35.84 deg C is an extrapolation artifact (quadratic term p = 0.963). Within the observed range, warming and declining mortality moved in the same direction. Conclusions The 96% decline in childhood respiratory mortality cannot be attributed to warming. China sits on the low-temperature side of the optimum, and the marginal direction of future warming requires stronger designs to establish. The falsification framework offers a discipline for climate-health inference in China.

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The impact of London's Ultra Low Emission Zone on respiratory prescribing: a synthetic control study

Williams, G. H.; Allen, T.

2026-09-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361515 medRxiv
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Urban air pollution remains a significant public health concern, contributing to premature deaths and adverse health outcomes. However, there is little causal research evaluating the effectiveness of policies designed to improve air quality. This study assesses the impact of all three stages of London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on air pollution, via PM2.5 levels, and respiratory health, via prescription records for bronchodilator and respiratory corticosteroid medications. Analyses are at general practice level, using a generalised synthetic control method to estimate causal impacts. Stage 1 was associated with a statistically significant but negligible 0.77% reduction in PM2.5 levels, with no corresponding change in prescribing. Stage 2 produced a paradoxical 2.69% increase in PM2.5, alongside a 4.44% decrease in inhaled corticosteroid quantity but a 12.51% increase in average daily quantity (ADQ) usage, suggesting a worsening of disease severity among existing patients. Stage 3 yielded a 2.69% PM2.5 reduction and a modest 2.18% decrease in bronchodilator ADQ usage. Spillover effects beyond the ULEZ boundary were statistically significant, but negligible. We find overall that the ULEZ had minimal effects on both air quality and respiratory prescribing across all three stages. These findings provide new insights into the effectiveness of ULEZ policies in reducing air pollution and its associated health impacts, suggesting the zone's effects are considerably smaller than previously reported, and that integration with broader policy measures may be necessary to achieve meaningful public health gains.

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Post-pandemic ecological reshaping of respiratory pathogen circulation: A six-year FilmArray(R)-based surveillance study in Tokyo, Japan (2020-2026)

Takeuchi, J. S.; Kurokawa, M.; Yamamoto, K.; Yamanaka, J.; Morino, E.; Takayanagi-Nishisako, S.; Ohmagari, N.; Sugiura, W.; Kimura, M.

2026-09-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.28.26360747 medRxiv
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Background The COVID-19 pandemic substantially altered respiratory pathogen circulation worldwide. However, longitudinal analyses of changes in respiratory pathogen ecology across the pandemic and post-pandemic periods remain limited. Methods We analyzed 19,968 respiratory samples tested with the BioFire(R) FilmArray(R) Respiratory Panel at a hospital in Tokyo, Japan, between January 2020 and March 2026. We evaluated temporal changes in pathogen circulation, age-specific epidemiology, co-detection patterns, pairwise pathogen associations, and clinical parameters. Results At least one respiratory pathogen was detected in 27.8% of tests. Respiratory pathogens resurged asynchronously following the relaxation of COVID-19-related public health measures. Influenza virus circulation remained markedly suppressed until late 2022 before re-emerging in successive large seasonal epidemics, whereas other pathogens, including RSV, human metapneumovirus, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae, exhibited distinct resurgence patterns. Pathogen distributions also varied by age. Human rhinovirus/enterovirus remained predominant among young children, whereas SARS-CoV-2 predominated among older adults. Co-detection occurred in 14.0% of positive specimens and was significantly more frequent in younger patients. Pairwise analysis identified both positive and negative pathogen associations; however, the patterns varied across age groups and study periods. Conclusions Respiratory pathogen circulation changed substantially during the transition from the COVID-19 pandemic to the post-pandemic period, with pathogen-specific, age- and period-dependent patterns. Continued surveillance is warranted to determine how respiratory pathogen circulation will evolve and to inform infection control strategies in the post-pandemic era.

6
Knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to ocular safety among maintenance workers in a Ghanaian university: A cross-sectional study

Kwarteng, C.; Brew, F. M.; Owusu, E.

2026-09-03 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361906 medRxiv
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Occupational ocular injuries are a preventable yet neglected public health problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Maintenance workers are exposed to diverse ocular hazards daily, yet compliance with protective measures is consistently poor. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among 85 maintenance workers at the Maintenance and Essential Services Organization (MESO) of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Ghana, recruited through stratified convenience sampling across seven occupational sections. A structured questionnaire assessed knowledge of ocular hazards and protective equipment, attitudes toward ocular safety, and safety practices. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS version 26 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA); chi-square and Fishers exact tests assessed associations (p < 0.05). Participants were predominantly male (84/85, 98.8%), with a mean age of 44.5 {+/-} 10.4 years. Overall knowledge was good (mean 9.40 {+/-} 1.59 out of 11), but attitude and practice scores were average (2.78 {+/-} 0.92 and 3.27 {+/-} 0.93, respectively). Most workers correctly identified goggles and face shields as protective, but only about half recognized that ordinary sunglasses and spectacles offer inadequate protection. Although 97.6% (83/85) recognized the need for ocular protection, only 7.1% (6/85) reported consistent protective eyewear use, and fewer than half (45.9%, 39/85) had received formal ocular safety training. Routine general protective equipment use was significantly associated with ocular protection use (Fishers exact test, p = 0.011). Sand and dust particles were the leading causes of injury and only 25% (5/20) of injured workers sought formal care. Workers demonstrated good knowledge but poor attitudes and practices toward ocular safety, suggesting that knowledge alone does not translate into protective behaviour even within a relatively well-resourced institutional setting. Findings suggest that limited access to task-appropriate protective eyewear may represent an important institutional barrier. Institutional PPE supply and section-specific safety training are essential to bridge this knowledge-practice gap.

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Sphingolipid metabolism-related genes as key regulatory hubs in white smoke inhalation induced lung injury

Meng, F.; Xin, H.; Li, R. R.

2026-09-01 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.08.26.747407 medRxiv
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Objective White smoke inhalation injury (WSI) causes severe acute lung damage with no specific therapy currently available. Sphingolipid metabolism is implicated in pulmonary inflammation, but its transcriptional regulatory landscape in WSI remains unexplored. This study aimed to identify key sphingolipid metabolism related genes and evaluate their regulatory roles and therapeutic potential in WSI. Methods We established a rat model of WSI and performed integrated bulk RNA sequencing, weighted gene coexpression network analysis (WGCNA), and single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNAseq) to screen for differentially expressed sphingolipid metabolism-related genes (DESRGs). Protein-protein interaction (PPI) network with four centrality algorithms was used to prioritize hub genes. In silico gene knockout and molecular docking were conducted to assess regulatory functions and identify potential drug candidates. Results We identified 22 DESRGs that were predominantly enriched in DNA replication and cell cycle pathways rather than canonical sphingolipid metabolic processes. PPI consensus prioritized three hub genes--Top2a, Ttk, and Ccna2--with Top2a exhibiting the highest expression in epithelial cells and significant downregulation after smoke exposure. ScRNAseq revealed immune cell infiltration and epithelial differentiation trajectories. Virtual knockout showed that Top2a depletion affected the largest transcriptomic fraction (~0.4%) and was enriched in lysosome biogenesis, innate immunity, phagocytosis, and lipid catabolism. Molecular docking identified thalidomide as a high affinity ligand for Top2a (Vina score: -8.5 kcal/mol). Conclusion Our multiomics integrative framework identifies Top2a as a central regulatory hub linking sphingolipid associated inflammation to epithelial responses in WSI, and nominates thalidomide as a potential drug repurposing candidate. These findings provide prioritized targets for future translational investigation.

8
From Bone-centric to Kidney-centric: Environment-Dependent Shift of Spaceflight Renal Stone Pathways

Shi, J.; Gu, Q.; Pan, J.; Yang, A.; Fan, M.

2026-08-31 urology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26360881 medRxiv
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Human deep-space missions face bone-kidney risks that cannot be extrapolated from six-month ISS data. We built a 12-state Ca-bone-urine-stone mechanistic ODE model and jointly calibrated its 11 physiological parameters on eight ISS targets by Bayesian identification (M0 base = 19-D; M1 extension adds a GCR-bone coupling term for parsimony testing only), then propagated the M0 posterior to four environments (ISS, Lunar subsurface, Lunar surface, Mars). Lumbar-lower BMD loss increases with mission duration and partial-gravity unloading (ISS 180 d -4.83% -> Mars 730 d -12.15%; 2^3 factorial: duration 82.9%, gravity 12.5%, GCR main effect ~ 0), whereas stone rate follows the opposite gradient (ISS 16.1 vs Mars 13.1 per 1000 person-years), reflecting weakened partial-gravity bone resorption alongside residual urinary chemistry changes. The dominant pathway thus shifts from bone-centric on the ISS to kidney-centric on Mars, where residual urinary-chemistry changes-not bone resorption-drive stone risk. The direct GCR-bone coupling term is unidentifiable at current ISS doses (DeltaWAIC = +0.0076 +/- 0.126 SE), so M0 is retained as the main inference model. Bisphosphonates provide >=84% BMD protection but leave a urinary-chemistry residual, so bisphosphonate monotherapy would underestimate Mars stone risk; potassium-magnesium-citrate combinations (RRR_RSS 51%) should therefore be added to deep-space countermeasures. A Lunar-surface 365-day mission is the earliest environment on the NASA roadmap to cross a composite RED threshold. That profile differs from the regolith-shielded 180-day case in both cumulative GCR (~69x) and duration (2x), so a shielding-specific effect cannot be isolated here; forcing the GCR coupling terms to zero leaves all four composite tiers unchanged (0/4, Supp S24), and the shielded 180-day profile is YELLOW rather than GREEN. Independent hold-out validation (Culliton 2025 60-day HDT-bedrest RCT, n=8 control arm of n=24 total) supports the M0 posterior predictive distribution on the lumbar-BMD sub-scope.

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Impact of Detection-Isolation-Leakage on the 2026 DRC Bundibugyo Ebolavirus Outbreak

Oraby, T.; Falay, D.; Ndeffo-Mbah, M. L.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361360 medRxiv
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The 17th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, announced on 15 May 2026, was attributed to Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV). Although case isolation is the main control strategy, its effectiveness is compromised when patients escape isolation facilities before recovery. Between 14 May and 17 June 2026, 175 individuals reportedly left isolation facilities without formal discharge across Ituri Province. We assessed how this "isolation leakage" affects community transmission. We refined the SEIHFR framework to distinguish undetected community infections, detected but not-yet-isolated cases, isolated individuals, leakage, funeral-associated transmission, and removals. Using Bayesian inference, we fitted the model to daily Ituri surveillance data, escapee counts, and isolation census records. We estimated the leakage rate, reporting and detection probabilities, and the transmission rate, while fixing other parameters based on the BDBV literature. The model reproduced confirmed cases, deaths, discharges, and escapees. We estimated R_0=3.67 (95% HDI: 2.0-5.7), a leakage rate of {rho} {approx} 0.034 day^-1 (0.022-0.051), and high contact-tracing-driven detection (p_d {approx} 0.91-0.99). Leakage increased the detection-dependent reproduction number [R](p_d) from approximately 3.2 to above 5. Eliminating leakage reduced cumulative infections by about one-third, from 1,120 to 764, while the minimum detection level required for control increased from p_d [&ge;] 0.73 without leakage to p_d [&ge;] 0.87 at the fitted leakage rate. Shortening time to isolation prevented the most infections (73.4%; 59-84), followed by reducing leakage (29.7%; 14-52) and re-isolating escapees (12.6%; 6-24). Delaying leakage reduction until week 4 reduced its benefit from about 27% to below 2%. Isolation leakage represents a major transmission pathway that has until now gone largely unmeasured. While rapid initiation of isolation is highly beneficial, it cannot compensate for permeable isolation; therefore, early, community-driven efforts to control leakage, embedded within a multilayered response, are critical.

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Comparative Transcriptional Responses of Human Blood to Neutron and Photon Irradiation

Salah, A.; Wollschlaeger, D.; Giesen, U.; Schmidberger, H.; Marini, F.; Zahnreich, S.

2026-09-01 biophysics 10.64898/2026.08.28.747800 medRxiv
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Despite the well-known health risks of neutron exposures, key gaps remain in understanding neutron-induced molecular responses and identifying reliable biodosimetric markers that distinguish neutrons from photon exposure. We provide the first genome-wide analysis of the human blood transcriptional response to an accelerator-derived fission-like spectrum of neutrons versus photons, evaluating transcriptomic relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and radiation quality-discriminating gene signatures. Whole blood from healthy donors was irradiated ex vivo with X-rays (140 kV, 0-4 Gy, n = 3) or neutrons (0.1-8 MeV, 0-1 Gy, n = 2), incubated for 6 h or 24 h, and processed for RNA sequencing from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). Neutrons were markedly more potent than X-rays at inducing differentially expressed genes (DEGs) at equal doses, showing a peak response 6 h post-irradiation followed by a decline. In contrast, X-rays caused a continuous increase in DEGs up to 24 h (neutrons vs. X-rays at 1 Gy: 1,449 vs. 121 DEGs at 6 h; 996 vs. 621 DEGs at 24 h). A universal p53-centered 34-gene signature, including FDXR, EDA2R, GADD45A, and ZMAT3, showed highly monotonic dose responses (Spearman correlation coefficient {approx} 1) across donors, radiation qualities, and timepoints. Additionally, difference-in-differences analysis identified radiation quality-discriminating genes only at 6 h, with transcriptional convergence observed by 24 h, suggesting a very narrow time window for biodosimetric differentiation. We identified a neutron-specific gene signature driven by cGAS-STING-NF-{kappa}B signaling (RELB, NFKB1, C3, MALAT1) and suppression of B-cell and myeloid identity genes (IGHD, TCL1A, CLEC7A, TLR2), defining a biologically coherent neutron quality index with distinct immunomodulatory effects. For the first time, we assessed neutron RBEs at the gene, pathway, and global transcriptomic levels in a human blood model, reporting a global transcriptomic neutron RBE of 1.30 (95% CI: 1.14-1.49) at 6 h and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.14-1.28) at 24 h, providing a valuable basis for biodosimetry in mixed-field exposure scenarios. Our findings advance the mechanistic understanding of neutron radiation responses and support the development of biodosimetric approaches for mixed-field exposure scenarios.

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A germline KDM3C polymorphism impairs DNA repair and sensitizes to chemoradiotherapy

Hasan, A.; Demidova, E. V.; Priyadarshini, P.; Czyzewicz, P.; Gathuka, L.; Murayama, T.; Zhou, Y.; Kiss, Z. A.; Shastry, R. K.; Andrake, M.; Hearne, G.; Devarajan, K.; Wu, C.; Shah, A.; Schultz, B. M.; Connolly, D. C.; Rosen, G. L.; Canadas, I.; Liu, J. C.; Burtness, B. A.; Smith, J. J.; Dunbrack, R. L.; Golemis, E. A.; Whetstine, J. R.; Meyer, J. E.; Arora, S.

2026-08-31 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.26.26360896 medRxiv
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Chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is the standard-of-care therapy for many solid malignancies, yet predictive biomarkers of treatment response remain limited. We identified a germline single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in an intrinsically disordered region of the lysine demethylase KDM3C/JMJD1C (p.S464T) that is associated with CRT outcomes in locally advanced rectal cancers (LARC) and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (LA-HNSCC). In silico modeling with AlphaFold predicted S464T substitution influenced interaction between phosphorylated KDM3C and RNF8 FHA domain. In cellular models, conversion of S464 to T464 increased sensitivity to DNA-damaging agents. S464T substitution impaired damage-induced MDC1-RAP80 signaling and downstream RAP80-BRCA1 colocalization. SNP carrying cells impaired DNA repair causing genotoxic stress that is associated with increased cGAS-cGAMP innate immune signaling and increased apoptosis. Population analyses with the SNP highlighted an increase incidence of UV-induced skin and other cancers, linking inherited variation in the chromatin regulatory gene KDM3C to genome instability, cancer risk, and therapeutic vulnerability.

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Making Accelerating Medicines Partnership Data Findable and Interoperable through a Common Data Model: Extending OMOP for Multi-Source Multimodal Data

Tindall, C.; Long, R. A.; Naughton, B.; Mapes, B. M.; Vismer, D.; Skinner, H. G.; Malenfant, J.; Maurya, M. R.; Nalls, M. A.; Ramachandran, S.; Nguyen, T.; Peters, M. A.; Scheuermann, R. H.

2026-09-02 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361831 medRxiv
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SysBio FAIRplex is a Common Fund Venture Program that catalogs and indexes data from the Accelerating Medicines Partnership(R) (AMP(R)) Program through a federated model in which data hosts retain custody of their datasets. The central piece of this work is the SysBio Common Data Model (SysBio CDM). AMP is a precompetitive public-private partnership started in 2014 that unites the resources of NIH and private partners to improve our understanding of disease pathways and transform current models for developing new treatments by: - identifying new targets, biomarkers, and development paradigms; - developing leading-edge tools and technologies; - collecting large-scale datasets and supporting analytics for open analysis by the public; and - generating consensus platforms and procedures. A multidisciplinary Task Force was chartered to design the SysBio CDM by extending the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model into the -omics domain. The Task Force produced a Minimum Viable Product comprising nine OMOP tables; four extension tables for assay and file metadata; and a Common Data Element (CDE) Registry to specify field semantics. This manuscript describes the deliverable: the underlying design choices, the criteria applied in selecting and constructing the extension tables, how the extended model supports multimodal data integration across AMP projects, and what further work to support additional -omics modalities would entail. As an auxiliary methodology, the paper also describes the AI-assisted CDE harmonization workflow used to populate the model.

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Design and characterization of broadly protective influenza A(H3N2) vaccine candidates using protein language models

Howard, V. R.; Allen, J. D.; Thomas, M. H.; Sautto, G. A.; Ross, T. M.; Georgiev, I. S.

2026-08-31 immunology 10.64898/2026.08.26.747087 medRxiv
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Seasonal influenza A viruses cause significant global morbidity each year. Although vaccination remains the primary preventive strategy, effectiveness is often reduced by antigenic drift. This challenge is particularly pronounced for influenza A(H3N2), which has required eight vaccine updates over the past decade. Here, we present a computational framework to engineer broadly reactive influenza A(H3N2) vaccines, using protein language models to generate novel hemagglutinin (HA) sequences and a machine learning model to predict antigenic distance from circulating strains. In a proof-of-concept study, seven HA candidates designed using sequence data from 2013-2018 were evaluated in mice against contemporary and subsequently circulating viruses. Two candidates elicited protective levels of reactive antibodies, robust H3-specific antibody-secreting cell responses, and cross-neutralization against contemporary clades and drifted 2019-2020 strains. These findings demonstrate that an integrated generation-selection strategy can enhance vaccine coverage across current and future A(H3N2) seasons and may be applicable to other influenza subtypes.

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ICONIC: An R Package for Integrating Instrumental Variable- and Negative-Control-Informed Causal Discovery and Diagnostics in Multiomic Studies

Bresnahan, S. T.; Xiong, C.; Head, T.; Chang, Y.-H.; Bhattacharya, A.; Huang, J. Y.

2026-08-31 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361466 medRxiv
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Unmeasured confounding threatens causal inference and replicability in observational multi-omic studies across variable environments. Genetic instrumental variables (Mendelian randomization) and negative-control calibration each address complementary sources of unmeasured confounding, yet no existing framework unifies them for omics-scale mediation analysis. We introduce ICONIC, an R package that embeds genetic instruments and negative controls within a proximal causal inference framework for total-effect and mediation analysis. ICONIC implements eight estimators spanning five confounding-control strategies, supports continuous, binary, and time-to-event outcomes, and provides extensive diagnostics including sensitivity analyses that map estimator performance across plausible assumptions. Ground-truth benchmarks are calibrated to real-omics covariance structures via a hybrid generative model (GAN + feature-level Gaussian copula) rather than parametric simulation, and a companion planning tool predicts performance gains from collecting additional omic data. We demonstrate ICONIC in two case studies: identifying placental transcriptomic mediators of gestational diabetes on birth weight (n = 164), and tumor-expression mediators of smoking intensity on lung cancer survival (n = 494). Notably, ICONIC's diagnostics recommended different estimation strategies across the two scenarios, reflecting differences in the likely influence of unmeasured confounding. ICONIC is freely available at https://github.com/sbresnahan/iconic/.

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Acute Protein Responses Control SARS-CoV-2-specific Neurocognitive and General Post-Viral Sequelae

Liou, T. G.; Andrews, R. J.; Bass, B. L.; Battey, H.; Buonfiglio, L. G. V.; Cahill, B. C.; Cox, J. E.; Gibson, S.; Hartsell, S. C.; Hatton, N.; Hazel, M.; Helms, M. N.; Jensen, J. L.; Kartsonaki, C.; Kupfer, J.; Li, Y.; Lopes, F. B. T. P.; Manuel, A.; Marchetti, M.; Marvin, J. E.; Middleton, E. A.; Mimche, P.; Packer, K. A.; Paine, R.; Szczesniak, R. D.; Sturrock, A. B.; Tandar, A.; Tarbet, B.; Ulrich, A.; Warner, D.; Warren, K.; Weis, A. M.; Zimmerman, E.; Yoon, S.; Ownbey, M.; Youngquist, S. T.; Adler, F. R.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361488 medRxiv
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Post-acute infection syndromes (PAIS) follow viral syndromes including post-acute sequelae of COVID19 (PASC) which complicates 10-25% of SARS-CoV-2 infections. These syndromes lack precise explanatory mechanisms. We studied 173 human saliva proteomes during respiratory viral syndromes, seeking associations between 44 clinically-relevant protein expression patterns and subsequent sequelae counts. Exploratory models adjusted by extensive clinical annotations found interactions between 23 acutely-responsive proteins and SARS-CoV-2 infection that inversely predicted subsequent neurocognitive sequelae. An overlapping 19 acutely-responsive proteins during any acute respiratory viral syndrome inversely predicted general fatigue-related sequelae. Altogether, 29 proteins, derived from interferon stimulated genes (ISG), were uniformly beneficial, including 13 predictive of both neurocognitive and general sequelae. The proteins suggested both shared early pathobiology and virus-specific protective responses that shaped resolution of acute disease and different PAIS. Acutely elevated protective ISG proteins associated with reduced post-viral symptoms identify investigational starting points for novel mechanisms, diagnostics and therapeutics for PASC and PAIS.

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A 515,579-Genome Reference Panel Improves Rare-Variant Imputation Across Multiple Underrepresented Populations

Ivankovic, F.; Ko, A.; Aster, M. M.; Balaconis, M. K.; Banks, E.; Bemis, M.; Cibulskis, K. R.; Degatano, K.; Gauthier, L. D.; Grant, G.; Hatcher, A.; Kachulis, C.; Karczewski, K. J.; Labrecque, S. M.; Lawson, J.; Liao, C.; Magner, R.; Munshi, R.; Schatz, M. C.; Schultz, P. M.; Shah, S. P.; Sheets, E. A.; Tibbetts, K.; Vernest, K. A.; Ye, R.; Gabriel, S.; Lennon, N. J.; Neale, B. M.; Browning, B. L.; Lichtenstein, L. T.

2026-08-31 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361247 medRxiv
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Genotype imputation remains essential for large-scale human genetics studies, but its performance is limited by the size and ancestral diversity of available reference panels, reducing accuracy for rare variants and underrepresented populations. Here, we present a cloud-based imputation service built on a multi-ancestry reference panel derived from 515,579 jointly phased genomes from the All of Us (N=414,830) and National Human Genome Research Institute's Analysis, Visualization, and Informatics Lab-space (AnVIL, N=100,749) datasets. The All of Us + AnVIL reference panel is highly diverse and includes 261,163 participants most genetically similar to non-European reference populations, spanning 665,398,839 high-quality autosomal sites, representing a nearly 50% increase over TOPMed, the previous largest imputation service. Across multiple ancestry groups, the panel enables accurate imputation (empirical R2 0.8) for variants with allele frequencies as low as 0.2%, extending reliable imputation into the rare-variant frequency spectrum, including allele frequencies down to 0.002% and 0.006% for samples with European ancestry and African ancestry in the United States, respectively. Compared with TOPMed, the panel improves imputation accuracy across all ancestry groups except Africans, and recovers additional trait-associated variants not represented in existing reference panels. To facilitate broad community access while preserving participant privacy, we deploy the panel through a secure cloud-based imputation platform using privacy-preserving recombined haplotypes. This resource establishes a new foundation for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and fine-mapping, especially in previously underrepresented populations.

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An LLM enabled real-time estimation of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness from social media data

Pavia, M. J.; Amaro, I. F.; Xu, D.; Gonzalez-Hernandez, G.; Scotch, M.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361670 medRxiv
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Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is estimated from a limited number of clinics using a test-negative design. These standard estimates face geographic, temporal, and operational constraints. Using Twitter/X data, we applied few-shot chain-of-thought prompting to identify self-reported vaccination status and influenza test results, then implemented a test-negative-like design to estimate VE. Our estimates fell within the range of interim reports and could complement current systems, improving feasibility, timeliness, and scalability.

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Clinical features of COVID-19 patients hospitalized at the Tashkent State Medical University and risk factors for intensive care unit admission: a cross-sectional study from Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Rakhimov, B.; Choi, J.; Kim, K.; Tuychiev, L.; Shadmanov, A.; Mamatkulov, B.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361631 medRxiv
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Background. The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and the ability to anticipate which patients will require intensive care, were poorly characterized in Central Asia during the first pandemic wave. We aimed to describe the clinical features of hospitalized COVID-19 patients at the Tashkent State Medical University, Uzbekistan, and to identify risk factors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods. In this single-centre cross-sectional study, we reviewed the records of 2500 consecutive patients hospitalized between 11 April and 8 August 2020. Patients were grouped as asymptomatic or symptomatic, and symptomatic patients were compared by ICU versus non-ICU status. Groups were compared with chi-square or Fisher's exact and Mann-Whitney U tests. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression identified risk factors for ICU admission. Results. Of 2500 patients (median age 36 years; 60.9% male), 989 (39.6%) were asymptomatic and 1511 (60.4%) symptomatic. In total, 129 (5.2%) were admitted to the ICU and 38 (1.5%) died. ICU patients were older (median 56 vs 40.5 years) and more often had bilateral pneumonia, oxygen desaturation and cardiometabolic comorbidity. In the multivariable model (AUC 0.82), the independent predictors of ICU admission were ischemic heart disease (aOR 4.20), shortness of breath (aOR 3.22), hypertensive heart disease (aOR 2.93) and male sex (aOR 2.00). Conclusions. Older age, cardiometabolic comorbidity and respiratory compromise identified patients at high ICU risk. As one of the first clinical COVID-19 descriptions from Uzbekistan, these data provide a baseline for preparedness in Central Asia.

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Decoding Humoral Immunity During Acute MPXV Infection via Comprehensive Serological Analysis and Antigen-agnostic Monoclonal Antibody Profiling

Zhang, Y.; Fan, J.; Wang, J.; Jiang, N.; Wan, Y.; Meng, L.; Qi, W.; Cheng, X.; Luo, K.; Zhang, T.; Li, R.; Chen, H.; Zhao, R.; Ren, Y.; Zhang, W.; Zhu, Z.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.21.26360138 medRxiv
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Dissecting the complexity of antibody responses in orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infected individuals is essential for elucidating protective mechanisms and identifying candidate protective immunogens. Here, we profiled the acute humoral response in 51 mpox cases, showing distinct IgG trajectories among multiple antigens alongside the rise of plasma neutralizing activities to plateau within 6 weeks after symptom onset. Utilizing a single-cell transcriptomic and BCR sequencing based antigen-agnostic mAb isolation workflow, we further generated monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from 254 expanded peripheral B cell clones of 3 patients. We discerned 97 specific mAbs recognizing at least 12 different OPXV proteins via integrated screening approaches, which comprised neutralizing antibodies binding unconventional viral targets and antibodies exhibiting extraordinary in vitro and in vivo anti-OPXV effects. The number of OPXV-specific mAbs recovered per donor reflected the percentage of expanded clones among circulating B cells. More interestingly, we demonstrated that the inferred unmutated common ancestors (UCAs) of neutralizing antibody clones did not necessarily react with OPXV, implying that OPXV neutralizing antibodies might frequently originate from B cells previously activated by unknown antigens. Our work establishes an efficient workflow for antigen-agnostic isolation of pathogen specific mAbs and reveals previously unclarified features of antibody responses induced by acute MPXV infection.

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Cost-Utility Analysis of First-Line Olaparib plus Abiraterone for Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer in China after Volume-Based Procurement

SHI, J.; Gu, Q.; Pan, J.; Yang, A.; Fan, M.

2026-08-31 health economics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361314 medRxiv
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To evaluate the cost-utility and 5-year budget impact of first-line olaparib plus abiraterone versus abiraterone alone for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) in China after the eleventh round of volume-based procurement (VBP). The intention-to-treat (ITT) population was assigned primary decision-analytic weight; the prespecified BRCA1/2-mutated (BRCAm) subgroup was a supporting analysis.