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The Innovation

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match The Innovation's content profile, based on 13 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Quantifying the global burden of lead exposure from dietary lead intake

Kinally, C.; Hu, H.; Fuller, R.

2026-07-21 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.07.20.26358457 medRxiv
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Background: Lead exposure is estimated to cause approximately 3.5 million premature deaths a year, yet the key ongoing sources of lead exposure are unclear. Methods: We estimated the contribution of dietary lead intake to global blood lead levels (BLLs) for 7-year-old children and 22-year-old adults by applying the All-Ages Lead Model (AALM) to calculate blood lead levels (BLLs) based on 25 total diet studies (TDS) that quantify dietary lead intake across 46 countries. Results: For children, the population-weighted average dietary lead intake in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (32.0 g/day) was found to be more than three times higher than in high-income countries (HICs) (9.3 g/day), and more than 10 times higher than the FDA reference level for children (2.2 g/day). The average impact on BLLs for children is estimated to be near 29 g/L in LMICs and near 12 g/L in HICs. Averaged across the TDS data, vegetables (27%) and cereals (24%) were found to contribute the most to dietary lead. Conclusions: While there are limitations associated with biokinetic modelling and the TDS data from LMICs, these results suggest that the contribution of dietary lead intake to global lead exposure is in the region of 40 to 50%, suggesting, in turn, that dietary lead intake is likely a major global driver of lead poisoning. Lead absorbed from the environment into food crops is expected to be the key driver of dietary lead. Current regulatory levels for maximum lead concentrations in foods (0.05-0.3 mg/kg) are out-of-date and may imply a dietary lead intake of 200 g/day, far higher than the FDA reference level (2.2 g/day). Collecting representative TDS data in high lead burden countries should be a priority. Further research is also recommended on upstream lead sources and pathways of lead uptake in plants, driving global food contamination.

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Evaluation of polygenic risk scores and ambient air pollutants for lung cancer risk stratification in a lung cancer screening cohort

Trap, L.; Buyukcelik, R.; Antonissen, N.; Sidorenkov, G. A.; Ruiter, R.; Van Heemst, J.; Sedaghati-Khayat, B.; Stikker, B. S.; Dumoulin, D. W.; Gietema, H. A.; Heuvelmans, M. A.; Mohamed Hoesein, F. A. A.; De Jong, P. A.; Uitterlinden, A. G.; Brusselle, G.; Jacobs, C.; Aerts, J. G. J. V.; Vermeulen, R. C. H.; De Bock, G. H.; Groen, H. J. M.; Vliegenthart, R.; Downward, G. S.; Stadhouders, R.; Van Rooij, J.; NELSON-POP consortium,

2026-07-16 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.07.14.26358054 medRxiv
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Background: Randomized controlled trials have shown that computed tomographic (CT) screening reduces lung cancer mortality. Improved identification of at-risk groups, by leveraging non-smoking risk factors, could help refine screening selection. Aim: To evaluate polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and ambient air pollution (AAP) exposure for risk stratification in the NELSON lung cancer screening cohort. Methods: Two PRSs (PRS-McKay/PRS-Byun) and several AAPs (including nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter [PM]) were assessed in the NELSON lung cancer screening trial (N=7,364). PRSs were validated in the Rotterdam Study (N=11,493). Associations with lung cancer, mortality, screening results, and discriminative ability to distinguish lung cancer were evaluated. Results: PRS-McKay and PRS-Byun were associated with lung cancer (odds ratio [OR] per SD [95%CI]: 1.22 [1.08-1.37] and 1.28 [1.13-1.44], respectively) and lung cancer-specific mortality (OR [95%CI]: 1.24 [1.05-1.47], for both), but not with non-lung cancer mortality (OR [95%CI]: 1.01 [0.94-1.10] and 1.03 [0.95-1.12], respectively). Exposure to PM2.5 was associated with lung cancer (OR [95%CI]: 1.11 [1.01-1.22]). PM constituents were associated with adenocarcinoma, particularly PM10 (OR [95%CI]: 1.16 [1.01-1.32]) and ultra-fine particles (OR [95%CI]: 1.16 [1.04-1.30]). PRS and AAP added modestly to the discriminative ability for lung cancer on top of pack-years, age, and sex (area under the curve [95%CI]: 0.659 [0.624-0.695] vs. 0.643 [0.608-0.679]). Conclusions: PRSs and exposure to PM were associated with lung cancer in a high-risk screening population. The primary potential of PRSs may reside in refining lung cancer screening selection toward individuals at higher risk of dying from lung cancer specifically.

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Acute associations between ambient air pollution and risks of preterm and early-term births: results from 8 states in the United States

Zheng, X.; Fitch, A.; Warren, J. L.; Hao, H.; Strickland, M. J.; Newman, A. J.; Darrow, L. A.; Chang, H. H.

2026-07-21 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.19.26358434 medRxiv
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Exposure to higher levels of ambient air pollution during pregnancy has been linked to multiple adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, studies on acute exposures and reduced gestation length have reported inconsistent findings. This project aims to examine the acute association between ambient air pollution and preterm (28-36 gestational weeks) or early-term (37-38 gestational weeks) births. Daily concentrations of 12 air pollutants, based on bias-corrected numerical model outputs, were linked to vital records of singleton live preterm and early-term births from 2005-2017 in California, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina (2005-2015), and Oregon. Under a time-stratified case-crossover design, odds ratios (OR) were estimated via conditional logistic regression with adjustment for risks among ongoing pregnancies, meteorology, time trends and federal holidays. We estimated cumulative associations up to a 6-day lag using distributed lag models. Risk estimates per interquartile range (IQR) increase in exposure were pooled across states using inverse-variance weighting. Our study included 1,085,162 preterm and 3,901,185 early-term births. We observed positive associations between 0-2 day cumulate exposure to several air pollutants and early-term births, including NO2 (OR: 1.0023, 95% CI:1.0010, 1.0037 per 7.1 g/m3 increase), PM2.5 (OR=1.0022, 95% CI: 1.006, 1.0038 per 4.6 g/m3 increase), PM2.5 organic carbon (OR= 1.0026, 95% CI: 1.0013, 1.0039 per 1.7 g/m3 increase) and PM2.5 elemental carbon (OR=1.0025, 95% CI: 1.0014, 1.0035 per 0.26 g/m3 increase). Associations with preterm birth were mostly null. In conclusion, we found positive associations between short-term air pollution exposure, including PM and major PM2.5 components, and risks of early-term birth.

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Trends and Future Burden of Major Gastrointestinal Cancers in Jiangsu Province, China, 2010-2030

Zou, Y.; Wang, W.; Tao, L.; Zhu, H.; Ju, H.; Pan, L.; Wang, W.

2026-07-17 public and global health 10.64898/2026.07.16.26358207 medRxiv
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Aim: To assess temporal trends in incidence and mortality and project the future burden of five major gastrointestinal cancers in Jiangsu Province, China. Methods: Population-based cancer registry data from Jiangsu Province between 2010 and 2021 were used to analyze the burden of esophageal, gastric, colon, rectal, and liver cancers. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated and compared by cancer type, sex, and urban-rural residence. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percentage changes (AAPC). The APC from the most recent Joinpoint segment was used to project incidence and mortality rates to 2030. Results: In 2021, gastric cancer had the highest age-standardized incidence and mortality among the five cancers. Incidence and mortality were consistently higher in males than in females and increased markedly after 50 years of age. From 2010 to 2021, age-standardized incidence and mortality declined for esophageal, gastric, and liver cancer, but increased for colon and rectal cancer. Colon cancer showed the steepest increase in both incidence and mortality. Rural areas experienced faster increases in colon and rectal cancer burden than urban areas. Projections to 2030 suggest continued declines in esophageal, gastric, and liver cancer, while colon cancer incidence and mortality are expected to rise further. Conclusion: Jiangsu Province is experiencing a transition in gastrointestinal cancer burden, with continued declines in esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers but an emerging and growing burden of colorectal cancer, especially colon cancer. Prevention strategies should focus on expanding colorectal cancer screening and early diagnosis, particularly in rural areas, while sustaining control of esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers.

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Multi-matrix copper exposure is associated with reduced olfactory bulb volume and odor sensitivity in adolescents

Invernizzi, A.; Rodriguez, M. A.; Saviola, F.; Marinelli, G. P.; Oluyemi, K.; Rechtman, E.; Corbo, D.; Renzetti, S.; Tang, C. Y.; Mascaro, L.; Ambrosi, C.; Gasparotti, R.; Smith, D.; Wright, R. O.; Lucchini, R. G.; Placidi, D.; van Thriel, C.; Horton, M.

2026-07-16 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.07.13.26357935 medRxiv
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Copper (Cu) is an essential metal involved in neurobiological processes including energy metabolism and neurotransmission, yet dysregulated Cu levels may adversely affect brain health and olfactory performance. Although olfactory dysfunction has primarily been studied in older adults and neurodegenerative disease, adolescence is a critical period of brain maturation during which the olfactory system may be particularly vulnerable. This cross-sectional study examined associations between Cu exposure, olfactory bulb (OB) volume, and olfactory performance in 200 adolescents and young adults (64% female; ages 13 - 25) from the Public Health Impact of Metals Exposure cohort. Cu concentrations in blood, urine, hair, and saliva were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans estimated left, right, and total OB volumes using a three-stage deep learning pipeline. Olfactory performance was assessed using the Sniffin Sticks test. Weighted quantile sum regression evaluated associations between a Cu mixture index and OB outcomes, while standard linear regression models assessed individual Cu biomarkers. Models were adjusted for age and sex. A higher Cu index was associated with reduced left (Beta= -0.72, 95% CI [-1.42, -0.02]), right (Beta = -0.79, 95% CI [-1.43, -0.15]), and total OB volume (Beta= -1.55, 95% CI [-2.85, -0.25]), as well as lower odor threshold scores (Beta = -0.23, 95% CI [-0.42, -0.03]). Individual biomarkers were not independently associated with outcomes. These findings suggest that Cu exposure may adversely affect olfactory neurodevelopment during adolescence and highlight the importance of studying environmental exposures relevant to long-term neurological health.

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MeshScope-Region: Distribution, Road-Network Accessibility, and Nine-Year Evolution of ICU and HCU Capacity Across Japan's 330 Secondary Medical Areas

Ohno, K.; Hirai, M.; hashimoto, s.

2026-07-20 health informatics 10.64898/2026.07.17.26358374 medRxiv
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Background: In Japan, health planning is organized around secondary medical areas (SMAs; niji-iryo-ken; 330 areas in the 2025 classification), yet nationwide analyses of intensive care unit (ICU) capacity have been conducted mainly at the prefecture level, and a recent SMA-level study addressed only the presence or absence of ICUs. The full supply structure of intensive and intermediate critical care - ICU and high care unit (HCU) beds - has not been characterized at the SMA level with respect to its composition, road-network accessibility, and evolution over time. Methods: We developed MeshScope-Region, an analytical platform built on the Hospital Bed Function Reports (byosho-kino-hokoku) for fiscal years 2016-2024, in which ICU and HCU beds were identified from notified reimbursement categories and aggregated to SMAs. Three analytical layers were integrated: (1) cross-sectional distribution of ICU/HCU beds; (2) nationwide road-network accessibility computed with the Open Source Routing Machine (OSRM) from 176,962 populated 1-km census grid cells to all facilities reporting ICU or HCU beds; and (3) a nine-year longitudinal analysis of supply-structure types, classified by k-means (k = 6) in an 8-dimensional PCA space anchored to fiscal year 2024, with earlier years projected into the same space. Results: In fiscal year 2024, 20,631 ICU/HCU beds were reported nationally (7,114 ICU-type; 13,517 HCU-type) at 1,044 facilities. Zone-level totals among SMAs with any beds ranged 229-fold (3-688 beds); the 90th/10th percentile ratio of per-capita density was 3.6. In total, 90.1% of the population resided within 30 minutes' drive of a facility with ICU beds and 97.8% within 60 minutes; only 0.8% resided beyond 90 minutes. Although 140 of the 330 SMAs had no ICU facility within their own boundaries, 84.7% of their residents could reach an ICU facility in an adjacent area within 60 minutes' drive. Longitudinally, supply structures were highly persistent: 63.0% of SMAs (208/330) retained the same structural type across all nine years, adjacent-year rank correlations of a supply-vulnerability index were 0.887-0.924 (2016 vs. 2024: rho = 0.711), and the number of SMAs with zero ICU beds remained frozen at 133-141. The Gini coefficient of bed distribution declined from 0.384 to 0.262 - although computed on ICU-type beds alone it remained 0.365 in fiscal year 2024 - and capacity growth (total +27.9%) was driven predominantly by HCU beds (+41.6%) while ICU beds grew only +8.0%. Conclusions: Japan's critical care supply structure is regionally rigid, with a stable set of approximately 140 SMAs lacking ICU beds for nearly a decade, yet road-network accessibility substantially mitigates the consequences of zone-level absence. Recent capacity growth - and much of the apparent equalization - has occurred predominantly in intermediate care. MeshScope-Region provides a standing, reproducible evidence base at the geographic unit of Japan's medical planning cycles.

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Nationwide Mpox Genomic Surveillance Reveals Clade Ib Introductions, APOBEC3-Driven Evolution, and Terminal Deletions

Brochu, H. N.; Shi, Q.; Song, K.; Zhang, Q.; Munroe, J.; Harris, N. J.; Britt, N.; Zeng, Q.; Kapuria, K.; Chappell, J.; Norvell, B. M.; Peavy, L.; Williams, J. D.; Harris, A. B.; Chaitram, J.; Hutson, C. L.; Deng, J.; McGrath, D.; Boles, D.; Dale, S. E.; Gigante, C. M.; Iyer, L. K.

2026-07-17 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357894 medRxiv
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Background The 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak highlighted the critical need for robust genomic surveillance capabilities to track mpox virus (MPXV) evolution and transmission dynamics. Methods Building upon our established SARS-CoV-2 sequencing infrastructure, we implemented a Molecular Loop probe-based long-read sequencing approach using Pacific Biosciences Sequel II technology for comprehensive MPXV genomic surveillance across the United States (US). From August 2024 to June 2025, we generated 326 high-quality whole genome sequences from residual mpox-positive clinical specimens collected by Labcorp across all 10 US Department of Health and Human Services regions. Results Our analysis identified two samples containing clade Ib MPXV in January and June 2025 and captured shifting trends in clade IIb diversity, with 13 distinct lineages observed. We also identified multiple instances of large (~1.6-17.6kb) deletions proximal to the inverted terminal repeats in clade IIb genomes. APOBEC3 mutation analysis indicated substantial evidence of human-to-human transmission among both clades. Further, we observed significantly higher APOBEC3-associated SNPs per kilobase (P<0.001) in clade IIb genomic variable regions relative to their central conserved region. Our assay exhibited strong reproducibility across biological replicates from individual patients and accuracy was confirmed via parallel sequencing of select specimens by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) using metagenomic sequencing. We also demonstrated via custom simulation that our assay discriminates all known MPXV clades and lineages, including those we have not observed in the US. Conclusions Our integrated nationwide surveillance system facilitates real-time genomic tracking of outbreak evolution, with demonstrated capacity across SARS-CoV-2 and MPXV, positioning this platform for rapid deployment during future pathogen emergence.

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Vaccination recommendations to others among physicians and the general public: effects of birth-year-based vaccination policy changes assessed by regression discontinuity analysis

Murakami, M.; Kato, H.; Ohtake, F.

2026-07-17 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358203 medRxiv
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Introduction: Recommendations from physicians and peers play a crucial role in promoting vaccination. This study evaluated differences in recommendations to others regarding four vaccines with varying efficacy (seasonal influenza, measles, human papillomavirus [HPV], and coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]) between physicians and the general public and examined the impact of birth-year-based vaccination policy changes on these recommendations. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in February 2026 among 492 physicians and 5,252 members of the general public in Japan. Consistency in recommendations across the four vaccines was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC[3,1]), and group differences were examined using a two-way mixed-design analysis of covariance. Multilevel regression discontinuity analyses were performed to evaluate the effects of birth-year-based vaccination policy. Results: Physicians showed significantly stronger recommendations to others than the general public, and their recommendation patterns generally reflected vaccine efficacy. However, physicians showed lower consistency across vaccine types than the general public (ICC[3,1]), driven primarily by heterogeneity in COVID-19 vaccine recommendations. Regression discontinuity analyses showed that birth-year-based vaccination policy, including routine vaccination opportunities, was significantly associated with recommendations to others for measles and HPV vaccines, independently of perceived benefits and risks. Conclusion: To improve vaccination coverage from a public health perspective, it is important for physicians to provide effective vaccination recommendations to the general public on a broader scale; however, it is also necessary to address the heterogeneity in vaccine-specific recommendation patterns among physicians, as observed for COVID-19. Routine vaccination opportunities may increase vaccination coverage not only through the routine vaccination program itself but also through peer effects among the general public. Vaccination policy may therefore influence vaccination coverage not only in the current generation but also in future generations. Designing vaccination policy should consider its long-term impact on future vaccination coverage as well as herd immunity.

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The Impact Mechanism of Screen Time on Depression Among Chinese College Students: A Chain Mediation Model of Sleep Quality and Emotion Regulation

Liang, C.; Zhang, D.-y.; Li, K.-x.; Li, B.; Lou, H.; Zhu, S.; Yu, S.-h.; Han, S.-s.

2026-07-21 public and global health 10.64898/2026.07.20.26358281 medRxiv
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Purpose This study aimed to examine the association between screen time and depressive symptoms among Chinese college students, and to investigate the mediating roles of sleep quality and emotion regulation in this relationship. Furthermore, a serial mediation model was constructed to elucidate the underlying psychological mechanisms linking screen exposure to depression. Methods A stratified cluster sampling method was employed to recruit 10,999 college students for a cross-sectional questionnaire survey. Data were collected on screen time, sleep quality, emotion regulation ability, and depressive symptoms. Descriptive statistics, correlation analyses, and regression analyses were conducted using SPSS 26.0 A serial mediation model was tested using the PROCESS macro (Model 6), and bootstrapping procedures were applied to estimate the significance of indirect effects. Results Correlation analyses indicated that screen time was significantly positively associated with depressive symptoms (r = 0.16, p < 0.01) and sleep quality (r = 0.15, p < 0.01), and significantly negatively associated with emotion regulation (r = -0.13, p < 0.01). Sleep quality was positively correlated with depressive symptoms (r = 0.31, p < 0.01), whereas emotion regulation was negatively correlated with depressive symptoms (r = -0.42, p < 0.01). Regression analyses further showed that screen time significantly positively predicted depressive symptoms ({beta} = 0.712, p < 0.001), positively predicted sleep quality ({beta} = 0.217, p < 0.001), and negatively predicted emotion regulation ({beta} = -0.085, p < 0.001). In addition, both sleep quality ({beta} = 1.318, p < 0.001) and emotion regulation ({beta} = -0.424, p < 0.001) were significant predictors of depressive symptoms. Mediation analyses demonstrated that sleep quality significantly mediated the association between screen time and depressive symptoms (95% CI [0.239, 0.332]), as did emotion regulation (95% CI [0.269, 0.416]). Moreover, a significant serial mediation effect of sleep quality and emotion regulation was observed in the relationship between screen time and depressive symptoms (95% CI [0.082, 0.117]). Conclusion Screen time is significantly associated with depressive symptoms among college students, with sleep quality and emotion regulation serving as important mediating mechanisms. Extended screen exposure may be linked to higher levels of depressive symptoms by impairing sleep quality and weakening emotion regulation capacity.

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Multimodal gene prioritization reveals nonlinear regulatory architecture in childhood-onset asthma

Huang, N.; Ragsac, M. F.; Gui, X.; Tantisira, K. G.; Amariuta, T.

2026-07-16 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.07.14.26357983 medRxiv
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Asthma is a heritable complex disease that disproportionately burdens minority and admixed populations in the US. However, the causal genes and regulatory mechanisms governing inherited risk remain largely unresolved. We performed a European-ancestry meta-analysis of 141,894 cases and 1,361,846 controls drawn from the Trans-national Asthma Genetic Consortium (TAGC) and Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI), yielding an estimated h2SNP of 0.056 (SE = 0.0038) and 275 independently associated loci. To enhance mechanistic inference beyond variant-level associations, we developed a multimodal framework to predict asthma risk integrating GWAS summary statistics, bulk tissue expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project, and single-cell gene eQTL data from the OneK1K Project. We performed transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) and subsequently applied probabilistic fine-mapping with FOCUS to prioritize putative causal genes expressed in bulk tissues and higher resolution immune cell populations. Fine-mapping asthma-associated genes implicated barrier-immune and metabolic-endocrine tissues alongside adaptive T-cell subsets as the primary mediators of asthma genetic risk, resolving canonical CD4+ Th2 effector genes including IL1RL1, TSLP, STAT6, and GATA3. Using these prioritized genes, we constructed a polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS) using random forest to integrate gene-level effects across critical tissues and cell types. Evaluated in two ancestrally distinct pediatric asthma cohorts, the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP) and the Genetics of Asthma in Costa Rica Study (GACRS), our PTRS demonstrated improved transferability over the standard variant-level and gene-level baseline models. While modest common variant heritability limits the discriminative power of our models, we estimated a theoretical maximum achievable area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.64. Our integrative nonlinear model of PRS-CSx and cross-modal (bulk tissue and single cell) FOCUS PTRS resulted in the best cross-cohort performance (CAMP AUC = 0.632, sd = 0.04, 3.55 case/control odds ratio in top vs. bottom quartiles), representing an increase of +0.118 AUC over PRS-CSx, +0.067 AUC over tissue-specific TWAS pruning and thresholding, and +0.041 AUC over cell-type-specific FOCUS PTRS. Our results demonstrate that modeling nonlinear interactions between variant- and gene-level effects across both bulk tissue and single cell eQTL data improves our ability to determine high-risk individuals and to explain the likely mechanisms driving genetic susceptibility of childhood-onset asthma.

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Exploration of the molecular origins of sex-specific and temporal comorbidity patterns in dementia: insights from the Austrian claims data

Kovacevic, V.; Basaragin, B.; Kovacevic, J.; Zecevic, A.; Danilo Lombardo, S.; Dervic, E.

2026-07-16 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.07.14.26357961 medRxiv
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Dementia is a progressive condition that impairs cognitive processes such as memory, decision making, and the ability to manage daily activities. Recent estimates suggest that more than half of all dementia cases could be preventable by addressing their risk factors, including disease comorbidities such as diabetes and vision loss. Yet, we lack a comprehensive molecular map of dementia comorbidities. In this work, we analyzed Austrian nationwide hospital claims data, comprising 13 million hospital stays from 2015 to 2019, to systematically assess dementia-related risk across disease comorbidity patterns, covering both their molecular relationships and their epidemiological overrepresentation. We identified disease trajectories occurring before and at the time of dementia diagnosis, revealing both sex-specific and shared comorbidity patterns. Overall, we identified 51 potential risk factors, with a prominent contribution from endocrine and metabolic disorders. While Parkinson's disease emerged as a strong molecularly related driver of dementia, we also identified emerging and previously under chracterized risk factors, including vitamin D deficiency. This integrative framework provides a comprehensive view of dementia associated disease networks and identifies novel, potentially modifiable risk factors. These results offer new opportunities for targeted prevention strategies and advance our understanding of the complex interplay between comorbidities and dementia development.

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Proteogenomic mapping of multimorbidity identifies C1R linking coronary artery disease and dementia

Li, L.; Tang, Z.; Zhong, Z.; Geng, T.; Guo, Y.; Liao, Y.; Demirkan, A.; Bowden, J.; Bragg, F.; Pan, A.; Sun, X.; Liu, J.; Liu, G.; Liu, J.

2026-07-16 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.07.14.26358022 medRxiv
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Multimorbidity is highly prevalent in ageing populations, yet its shared molecular basis remains poorly defined, limiting the development of therapies that target multiple conditions. We systematically integrated measurements of 1,954 circulating proteins from 54,219 individuals in discovery and 35,559 in replication, focusing on ten common age-related diseases: coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, heart failure, major depressive disorder, osteoarthritis, Parkinson's disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. Coronary artery disease emerged as a central condition in the multimorbidity network, sharing circulating protein signatures with seven other diseases. Through genetic causal-inference analyses, we identified 40 circulating proteins with cross-disease relevance, of which four were further supported by colocalization of genetic variant associations. Among these, complement C1r, encoded by C1R, emerged as a key link between coronary artery disease and dementia, supported by independent colocalization evidence (PP.H4 = 0.86). Phenome-wide association analyses of C1R variants suggested that this signal was not driven by widespread unrelated genetic effects, but instead may reflect a more specific contribution to coronary artery disease-dementia pathogenesis. In vitro experiments further suggested that fibroblast-derived C1R promotes endothelial inflammation and neuronal apoptosis, providing mechanistic plausibility. Together, these findings position C1R as a biologically plausible and therapeutically relevant molecular link between coronary artery disease and dementia.

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Strategies to Reach Employees Nurturing Guidance and Trust in Healthcare (STRENGTH): Understanding Employee Drivers for Employer-Based Influenza Vaccination Programs

Sanchez, A. P.; Isakari, K.; Keefe, M.; Isakari, M.; Sitapati, A.

2026-07-16 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.07.13.26357995 medRxiv
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Background: Vaccine hesitancy and logistical barriers continue to limit influenza vaccination uptake among healthcare personnel. The STRENGTH initiative evaluated employee drivers of influenza vaccine acceptance in healthcare workgroups with lower vaccination compliance. Methods: This mixed-methods program evaluation used a custom Epic electronic medical record dashboard to identify workgroups with lower influenza vaccination rates, followed by focus groups, targeted worksite vaccination clinics, and an anonymous survey. Survey data from 73 respondents were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Mann-Whitney U tests, Kruskal-Wallis tests, chi-square or Fisher exact tests, and Spearman rank correlations. Results: Respondents had a mean age of 44.8 years (SD 11.3); 36 of 70 respondents reporting binary gender were male. Convenience of worksite vaccination received the highest importance ratings (mean 4.72/5), followed by protection from influenza (mean 4.38/5). Both were rated significantly above the neutral midpoint of 3 (Wilcoxon p<0.001). The strongest observed Spearman correlations were between peer pressure and leadership participation (rho=0.47) and between protection from influenza and willingness to receive a future combined influenza/COVID-19 vaccine (rho=0.42). Conclusions: Convenience and perceived protection were the most important vaccination drivers. Employer-sponsored workplace vaccination programs can reduce logistical barriers while providing opportunities for targeted education and trust-building. Keywords: influenza vaccination; healthcare workers; vaccine hesitancy; occupational health; workplace vaccination; employer-sponsored vaccination

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Single-cell gene programs define subtype identity and metastatic trajectories in renal cell carcinoma

Madrigal, A.; Kim, M.; Mehrjoo, Z.; Nishimura, T.; Saatci, O.; Osakwe, A.; Zavacky, E.; Moslemi, E.; Glennon, K. I.; Dankner, M.; Maritan, S. M.; Kuasne, H.; Pilon, V.; Monast, A.; Soytas, M.; Arseneault, M.; Oikonomopoulos, S.; Harutyunyan, A.; Lu, T.; Rayes, R.; Soto, L. M.; Hernandez-Corchado, A.; Spicer, J. D.; Petrecca, K.; Siegel, P.; Park, M.; Ragoussis, J.; Sahin, O.; Brimo, F.; Tanguay, S.; Riazalhosseini, Y.; Najafabadi, H. S.

2026-07-16 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.07.14.26357682 medRxiv
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While extensive cellular heterogeneity in renal cell carcinomas (RCC) is linked to diverse clinical outcomes, our understanding of this diversity is limited to those driven by clonal patterns or activity of canonical pathways. Here, we present a compendium of over 85,000 single-cell gene expression profiles from primary and metastatic tumors as well as patient-derived models across four RCC subtypes, including the rare clear cell papillary renal cell tumors, which we show are often misclassified and for which we identify CASP14 as a highly sensitive and specific biomarker. We dissect malignant cell variation within and across tumors using a generative modeling framework that accounts for clonal and copy number-driven expression shifts, defining 59 gene expression programs that deconstruct canonical pathways into functional submodules with divergent activity patterns, distinct regulators, and differential association with clinical outcomes. Despite the canonical view that VHL-deficient clear cell RCC exists in a constitutive pseudohypoxic state, we show strong intra-tumor variability of a hypoxia inducible factor 2 (HIF2)-driven program linked to poor outcome. We also identify early, spatially organized activation of a complete epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) program, loss of epithelial identity, and upregulation of protein translation programs as key characteristics of metastatic progression. Finally, a metastatic signature capturing cellular de-differentiation and translational activity identifies primary tumors associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Together, this resource establishes a framework for dissecting malignant cell heterogeneity, refines RCC subtype classification, and defines transcriptional programs underlying metastasis progression.

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CAUSAL-RSV: Causal Analysis of RSV Vaccine Effects in Infants Using Real-World Data

Regan, A. K.; Coates, M. M.; Sullivan, S. G.; Munoz, F. M.; Rowe, S. L.; Avila, C.; Arah, O. A.

2026-07-18 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.07.16.26356876 medRxiv
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Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) contributes to substantial morbidity and mortality in young children each year. In 2023, two new prevention products were licensed and recommended in the United States (US), including a prefusion F protein subunit vaccine (RSVpreF) administered during pregnancy and a long-acting monoclonal antibody (mAb) administered in infants. Although post-licensure real-world studies support the effectiveness of RSVpreF vaccine during pregnancy, existing studies have been conducted in settings where only RSVpreF vaccine is available. The real-world effectiveness of RSVpreF vaccine in settings where both RSVpreF vaccine and mAbs are available is not yet well understood. The goal of this study is to estimate the real-world effectiveness of the RSVpreF vaccine against severe infant RSV by applying causal mediation analysis with receipt of mAbs as a mediating variable. Using a national cohort of mother-infant dyads with the Optum Labs Data Warehouse (OLDW), we will model vaccine and mAb effects in a longitudinal cohort spanning the 2023-24, 2024-25, and 2025-26 RSV seasons. Results will be used to better understand the total effect of RSVpreF vaccination when it is used as one component within a hybrid infant RSV prevention program.

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The mental health of farm wives

May, S.; Crossley, R. M.

2026-07-21 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.07.20.26358460 medRxiv
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Objectives: Research on mental health in agriculture has increased in recent years; however, it remains largely focused on farmers themselves and is predominantly male-oriented. The mental health of farm wives and partners, many of whom play integral roles in farm operations, business management, and family life, remains difficult to characterise. This study therefore aims to explore the prevalence and causes of mental health challenges among farm wives and partners, and to investigate their use of, and barriers to, mental health support services. Methods: Quantitative data was collected using over 450 structured questionnaire responses that assessed mental health prevalence, contributing stressors and support service utilisation. Results: Findings indicate that there is a high prevalence of mental ill health amongst farm wives, seemingly due to industry stressors and support role overwhelm. Interpersonal relationships played a significant role in the types of mental distress experienced and highlighted the toll that farm life can take on farm wives' social and emotional connections. Despite a range of formal and informal support services being available, and effective when used, significant barriers to accessing these services were identified, including both practical difficulties and self-stigmatisation due to cultural beliefs. Conclusions: Farm wives and partners experience substantial mental health burdens linked to their diverse and often underrecognized roles within agricultural systems. In future, targeted interventions are needed to reduce stigma, improve service accessibility, and recognize women's contributions within farm enterprises. Further research and dedicated investment are also essential to better understand and help improve the mental health of this overlooked population within agricultural industries.

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Malaria Pre-screening Technology Using Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Ibeto, O. O.; Nwoye, E. O.

2026-07-17 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357432 medRxiv
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Malaria remains a severe health problem in endemic regions because people lack adequate diagnostic tools, leading to delayed medical care and elevated death rates. This research introduces a dual-mode artificial intelligence system that uses two complementary models to enhance malaria pre-screening and diagnosis. The patient-centered model uses multivariate logistic regression to analyze biosignals, including heart rate, body temperature, and oxygen saturation, collected through a wearable sensor prototype and a mobile interface for symptom analysis. The system enables patients to begin self-assessment to determine their level of need before scheduling a doctor's appointment. The clinician-centered model represents a customized convolutional neural network that uses annotated microscopy images of red blood cells to achieve 94.84% accuracy, 95.71% precision, 93.87% recall, 94.78% F1 score, and 0.84 Area Under Curve (AUC). The patient model achieved 94.6% accuracy and an AUC of 0.985 using a 70/30 train-test split. These systems work together to create a layered diagnostic system that can operate independently or together to detect malaria at an early stage, especially in areas with limited resources. The findings demonstrate that wearable biosignal data integration with image-based deep learning can produce dependable, scalable, and user-friendly systems for malaria pre-screening. Keywords - malaria diagnosis, artificial intelligence (AI), convolutional neural networks (CNN), wearable biosensors, multivariate logistic regression

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General Practice Perspectives on Post-Infection Conditions: Scoping Review and UK Survey

Aung, K. W.; Scuffell, J.; Podlasek, A.; Engamba, S.; Jones, F.; Edwards, A.; Chew-Graham, C. A.; Sanyaolu, L.; Busse-Morris, M.

2026-07-17 primary care research 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358157 medRxiv
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Background Post-infection conditions (PICs), such as Long Covid, are associated with heterogeneous, fluctuating symptoms that profoundly affect daily functioning. Despite moderate-certainty evidence from the NIHR-funded LISTEN trial (COV-LT2-0009) that personalised self management support improves outcomes and may reduce societal and economic impacts of Long Covid, many people living with PICs still receive condition-specific services, generic advice, or stand-alone digital tools that do not address their complex needs. Aim To map care approaches in general practice and synthesise UK evidence for PIC management. Design and setting Scoping review and online survey. Method A two-phase study was conducted: (1) a scoping review of UK evidence on PIC management in general practice; and (2) a supplementary online survey of practitioners working in UK general practice to provide contextual insights. Results The scoping review identified 32 studies focused on Long Covid. One study included a comparator group (ME/CFS). Study populations were predominantly white ethnicity and female. Evidence for non-Covid PICs in UK general practice was largely absent. The supplementary survey (n=46) provided preliminary practice-level insights. Healthcare practitioners reported varied PIC presentations, diagnostic uncertainty, limited referral pathways, inequitable access, and low confidence in managing PICs. Conclusion Evidence informing PIC management in UK general practice remains predominantly Long Covid-focused and may not reflect the range of PICs encountered in practice. While survey findings are preliminary and require confirmation in larger samples, they highlight uncertainty around PIC management. Further research is needed to evaluate whether existing Long Covid pathways should be expanded or complemented by broader PIC models. Keywords general practice; Long Covid; self-management; post-viral syndromes

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Neonatal admission as a marker of risk for poor educational attainment and special educational needs in children aged 5-11 years

John, A.; Pike, C.; Olga, L.; Sovio, U.; Wong, H. S.; Smith, G. C.; Aiken, C.

2026-07-17 pediatrics 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358132 medRxiv
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Background: Children born prematurely (before 37 weeks) or admitted to the neonatal unit (NNU) are at increased risk of adverse long-term physical health outcomes. It is also recognised that there is an association with later academic performance and special educational needs, however it is not clear whether these broad risk factors could be used as stand-alone heuristics to identify children who may benefit from additional support in educational settings. We aimed to examine the associations between neonatal unit (NNU) admission and educational attainment in mid-childhood. Methods and Findings: Pregnancy data from a prospective birth cohort (Pregnancy Outcome Prediction Study, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2008-2012) were linked to national educational outcomes (Department for Education, United Kingdom). Multivariable regression models adjusted for maternal, child, and socioeconomic factors were used to evaluate associations between (i) all NNU admissions, (ii) at term NNU admissions >48 hours, (iii) preterm birth without ongoing physical health needs, and educational outcomes at ages 5-11 years. Children who required any NNU care were more likely not to meet expected educational standards across multiple ages and domains in early and mid-childhood: age 5 early year foundation (aOR 1.64, 95% CI 1.19-2.27, p=0.003), phonics at age 6 (aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.72-3.57, p<0.001), and at age 7 (here assessments were divided into multiple domains): reading (aOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.18-2.38, p=0.004), writing (aOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.25-2.38, p<0.001), mathematics (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09-2.22, p=0.020), and science (aOR 1.85, 95% CI 1.22-2.78, p=0.003). Similar patterns were observed among both at term-born infants who stayed >48hrs in NNU (phonics assessment at age 6 aOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.51-3.36, p<0.001) and in children born preterm without long-term physical health sequelae (phonics assessment at age 6 aOR 3.07, 95% CI 1.96-4.81, p<0.001). These associations were robust to adjustment for demographic, perinatal, and socio-economic factors. By age 11, differences in academic attainment were attenuated and no longer clearly distinguishable across all exposure groups. However, there was an increased likelihood of special educational needs (SEN) at age 11 associated with any NNU admission (aOR 1.78, 95% CI 1.15-2.73, p=0.009), at term NNU admission for >48hrs (aOR 1.88, 95% CI 1.19-3.00, p=0.007), and children born preterm without long-term physical health sequelae (aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.25, p=0.049). Predictive performance of any NNU admission for SEN at age 11 was moderate (AUC 0.70, 95% CI: 1.14-2.65, p=0.010), with balanced sensitivity and specificity and high negative predictive value. Conclusions: NNU admission, for both term and preterm infants, is associated with poorer educational outcomes and an increased likelihood of special educational needs in mid-childhood.

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Multilevel Factors Associated with Nonresponse to Patient-Reported Outcome Measures in Routine Radiation Oncology Care

Liu, J. B.; Chen, Y.-J.; Edelen, M. O.; Pusic, A. L.; Martin, N. E.; Zeng, C.

2026-07-17 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358162 medRxiv
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Purpose: Nonresponse to routinely collected patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) threatens the representativeness of aggregated data. We characterized patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors associated with PROMIS Global-10 nonresponse in routine radiation oncology care. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, all adults seen at five Mass General Brigham radiation oncology clinics over one year were included. The primary outcome was patient-level nonresponse, defined as never completing the portal-administered Global-10 versus completing it at least once. Using iterative mixed-effects logistic regression, we modeled patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors. Results: Among 12,214 patients, 71 providers, and five clinics, patient- and appointment-level response rates were 35.4% and 10.9%, with patient-level response ranging nearly fivefold across clinics (12.8% to 66.2%). In Model 1, male sex, lower education, not working, and recent surgery had higher odds of nonresponse, and longer time since diagnosis lower odds. After provider- and clinic-level factors were added, patient sex, education, and employment became nonsignificant, whereas recent surgery (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.97) and longer time since diagnosis (aOR 0.46 for >12 months) persisted. A provider's historical collection rate was protective but attenuated at the clinic level. There, a later program launch (aOR 0.29) and higher historical collection rate (aOR 0.79) correlated with lower nonresponse, whereas academic versus community setting did not. Conclusions: Nonresponse to routinely collected PROMs is a multilevel phenomenon driven substantially by clinic-level implementation factors, not patient characteristics alone. Because response rate is only a proxy for representativeness, PROMs programs and PRO-based performance measures should prioritize representative collection over volume.